USA vs Sweden: Grudge Match

The U.S. women’s national team will face Sweden on June 20th in the final match of the group stage of the 2019 Women’s World Cup. With their place in the group on the line, and a historic rivalry fueling the competition, it will be a battle for the ages. Here’s what you need to know before it all goes down.

How The Rivalry Began
Starting in 1991, there have been eight editions of the Women’s World Cup. Sweden and the United States have competed in each of those tournaments, and each country has hosted the event (Sweden in 1995 and the United States in 1999 and 2003). The two countries have met five times in the group stage (1991, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015) but they have never played each other at any other point in the tournament. The United States has defeated Sweden three times (1991, 2003, 2007), tied once (2015), and lost once (2011) in the World Cup.
The United States has a better overall record than Sweden in the tournament with three first place finishes (1991, 1999 and 2015) and no finish below bronze. In comparison, Sweden's best finish was in 2003, when they earned second after losing 2-1 to Germany in the final match.

Continuous close matches between aggressive teams on the international stage have led to a well-established and bitter rivalry between Sweden and the United States.

The Rivalry Deepens
The matchup occurred again in the quarterfinals of the 2016 Olympics. Notably, the U.S. now faced their former head coach, Pia Sundhage, who had left to coach the Swedish team in 2012. The teams finished regular time with a score of 1-1, leaving the game to be decided by penalty kicks. Missed shots by Alex Morgan and Christen Press gave the Swedes the advantage they needed and they ultimately won the game 4-3. Devastation and disbelief flooded over the faces of U.S. players, and for good reason. This was by far the earliest the U.S. had been sent home in the history of the Olympics. Since 1996, the first time women’s soccer was allowed in the Olympics, the U.S. had competed in every final match, winning four times and earning silver once.

Hope Solo, the goalkeeper for the USWNT who played every minute of the match, was perhaps most hurt by the loss. In a post-game interview, she said, “I think we showed a lot of heart. We came back from a goal down. I’m very proud of this team. But I also think we played a bunch of cowards. The best team did not win today.” Solo was suspended from the team for six months following this controversial comment, and never saw another international match.

The Rivalry: 2019 Women’s World Cup Edition
Sweden and the United States have each earned six points thus far and are ensured a place in the round of 16. That means this game is a fight for the top spot in the group, and bragging rights.

Sweden defeated Chile 2-0 and Thailand 5-1, giving them a goal differential of 6 points. The United States defeated Thailand 13-0 and Chile 3-0, giving them the highest positive goal differential of any team in the tournament with 16 points.

A victory by either team will earn them another three points, putting them at the top of the group. A tie would mean they walk away with one point each, leaving the rankings to be decided by goal differential. Here, the United States would easily overpower the Swedes and take the top spot.

The Strategy
Here’s where things get interesting. If the United States can top the group with either a tie or a win, it may be in their best interest to hold back, save their energy and focus on earning the tie, although that can be hard to guarantee. Given the future path for the top finisher, it may even benefit the United States to lose. However, it seems unlikely that we’ll see elite athletes, driven by competition and a passion for winning, using this strategy. Instead, the Americans are likely to play offensively against the strong Swedish team, aiming for a win earned with as many goals as possible.

Being the first ranked team would leave the USWNT to face Spain, and assuming they win, they will likely play their quarterfinal match against France in Paris, a showdown that commentators have been speculating about since the groups were drawn. In theory, the Swedes may appreciate a defeat in their match against the Americans to avoid such a game.

Predictions
This is a rivalry that goes back to the beginning of the Women’s World Cup and both teams are well-aware of this. I expect to see an intense match of possession, passing and wicked shots on goal between two opponents eager for a win.

On the American end, I expect to see tried and true stars returning to the starting line: Becky Sauerbrunn, Tobin Heath, Alex Morgan, and Carli Lloyd (each of whom have missed minutes in whole or in part against either Thailand or Chile). The Swedes will pull out all the stops and could shock the world as they have done before by defeating the USWNT in a critical match.

​But ultimately, I predict a 2-1 victory by the United States.